Episode 19

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Published on:

17th Sep 2024

19: Escape from Election Twitter, with Lakshya Jain

Forecasting election outcomes involves far more than simple polling averages, often incorporating complex models that account for candidate strengths, voter demographics, and historical trends. While these models strive for accuracy, they must grapple with the inherent unpredictability of human behavior and the challenge of quantifying intangible factors like voter enthusiasm and candidate quality. 


In this episode of Cross Tabs, Farrah Bostic interviews Lakshya Jain, a co-founder of the elections blog Split Ticket. Jain offers insights into the intricacies of election modeling, discussing the limitations of polls, the importance of cross-tabs, and the value of embracing uncertainty in forecasts. He also touches on the recent shift from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee, exploring how this change has reshaped polling data and electoral predictions. 


Resources 

Split Ticket: https://split-ticket.org

Split Ticket's Presidential Polling Aggregator

We Dug Into the 2024 Polling Crosstabs. What We Found Was Stunning. (Lakshya Jain and Harrison Lavelle in Politico)

How #electiontwitter took over the political prediction game (Financial Times)

How The Times/Siena Poll Is Conducted (The New York Times)

Pollster Ratings (FiveThirtyEight)

Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast


Our Guest 

Lakshya Jain is a machine learning engineer who analyzes political data in his free time. He handles modeling, data pieces, and presidential ratings for Split Ticket. Jain graduated from UC Berkeley with a BA in 2019 and an MS in 2020, majoring in computer science. He currently works in the tech industry. His political analysis and writing have appeared in prominent publications such as The New York Times, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and The Bulwark. 


Your Host 

Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn. 


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About the Podcast

Cross Tabs
People • Data • Power
Our world is governed by numbers — surveys, polling, algorithms, and data.

On Cross Tabs, we bring you the stories behind these numbers. This podcast is your introduction to the people, perspectives, and agendas that shape our reality, and call it “public opinion”.

We invite experts to discuss pressing issues and walk us through their methods. You’ll hear about the issues that matter from some of the brightest thinkers in policy and politics, tech and business.

Join us and you’ll learn about how polling works — or doesn’t work — and how research can be manipulated to advance a political agenda. Discover the history of topics in the news and hear insights on culture and society.

And learn what’s really at risk in the race to influence and optimize, well, everything.

The show is hosted by Farrah Bostic, founder of The Difference Engine, where she works as a qualitative researcher and strategist working outside The Beltway to understand what drives business leaders, experts, and people like you so we can all make better decisions.