26: Brian Schaffner on Studying Hard Things
Modern political polling faces fascinating challenges beyond simple statistical accuracy - from voters who strategically misrepresent their views to express partisan loyalty, to the complex task of predicting who will actually show up to vote. Despite popular perception of a deeply divided America, research suggests voters are far more moderate on individual issues than their partisan voting behavior would indicate.
Brian Schaffner, professor at Tufts University and Co-Director of the Cooperative Election Study (CES), joins Farrah on Cross Tabs to discuss the evolution of political polling methodology. He shares insights from running one of the largest academic election surveys, which interviews 60,000 Americans during election years. The conversation covers innovations in online polling, the science of predicting voter turnout, and how political campaigns are increasingly embracing data-driven decision making. Schaffner addresses common misconceptions about polling accuracy and explains why it takes months after an election to fully understand voting patterns and demographic shifts.
Resources
Tufts University Cooperative Election Study (CES) https://tischcollege.tufts.edu/research-faculty/research-centers/cooperative-election-study
Interactive Visualization Tools from CES https://tischcollege.tufts.edu/research-faculty/research-centers/cooperative-election-study/ces-quick-tools
QAnon and Conspiracy Beliefs Report by Brian Schaffner https://www.isdglobal.org/isd-publications/qanon-and-conspiracy-beliefs/
Financial Times, “Democrats join 2024’s graveyard of incumbents” https://www.ft.com/content/e8ac09ea-c300-4249-af7d-109003afb893
Mike Podhorzer’s Weekend Reading “Is this What Democracy Looks Like?” https://www.weekendreading.net/p/is-this-what-democracy-looks-like
Our Guest
Brian Schaffner is the inaugural Newhouse Professor of Civic Studies in the Department of Political Science and Tisch College at Tufts University. He is also Co-Director of the Cooperative Election Study, the largest academic survey of the American public and a core resource for academic researchers and the news media for understanding public opinion and American elections.
Your Host
Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.
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