Episode 15

full
Published on:

26th Jun 2025

Say What You're For, with Anat Shenker-Osorio

In this episode, Farrah Bostic is joined by messaging strategist, author, and Words to Win By host Anat Shenker-Osorio for a wide-ranging and incisive conversation about political communication, campaign strategy, and why so much of what the Democratic Party does feels like a missed opportunity.

Together, they explore:

  • How Anat’s early fascination with language and justice led her to a career in cognitive linguistics and progressive messaging.
  • Why most political message testing (RCTs, MaxDiff, etc.) fails to reflect how real people encounter campaigns — and what to do instead.
  • The danger of focusing on persuasion over mobilization, and why “say what you’re for” is the most important rule in campaign comms.
  • How Democrats lost their working-class identity, and why organizing — not polling — is the only way to win it back.
  • The power of persuasion windows and how the left can seize — or squander — them.

This episode is a must-listen for anyone working in politics, messaging, organizing, or simply trying to make change in a noisy, distracted, and deeply unequal world.

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📍 Produced by The Difference Engine

Transcript
Farrah Bostic:

Welcome back to Cross Tabs, a

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show about people, data and

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power.

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I'm your

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host, Farrah Bostick.

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So last night, as I record this,

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assemblyman Zohran Mamdani won the

first round of ballots in the Democratic

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primary for the New York City mayoral

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race.

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Andrew Cuomo, a previously disgraced

three term governor of the state

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conceded.

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We do not know whether this will be

a three, four, or five way general

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election, come the fall.

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But we know that Mamdani won last night.

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I mentioned this in

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part because we refer to the race in

this conversation, which took place

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about a week before the vote counting

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began, and also because I think

the Momani candidacy and campaign

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embodied a variety of things.

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I talk about with my guest, the

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host of the Words to Win by

podcast and founder of a SO

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Communication, an Shankar as Sorio.

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Anat is an incisive analyst of

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why certain messages falter where

others deliver, and she has led research

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on issues ranging from freedom to

clean energy, from immigrant rights,

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to reforming criminal justice, as

well as joining together in union

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and unions.

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She brings an innovative approach to

research that has led to progressive

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victories around the world.

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She's also the author of Don't

Buy It, the Trouble With Talking

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Nonsense About the Economy.

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I invited her on to talk about

how she came to do her work,

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how the Democratic Party got to

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where it is right now, and how voters

can move the party to where it needs

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to be if it's really going to earn

its name as the Democratic Party.

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Here's our conversation.

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Okay.

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So Anat, thank you for joining

me for this conversation.

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The place I like to start all of these

is just getting a little sense of how

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did you get to here, how, what was

your sort of career path that brought

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you to the work that you do now?

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Anat Shenker-Osorio: When I was in

kindergarten, , the teacher gave

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every single one of us a very special

notebook, and my very special notebook

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had on the cover the Muppet Show

specifically with animal on the drums

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in the middle and like the rest of

the Muppets, as some ragtag band.

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And then the principal called

her over the loudspeaker to

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come into the office and she, I.

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Sort of scrambling, said, okay, I have

to go to the office while I'm gone.

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Just like draw on the first

page of your notebook.

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And everybody got their own special

notebook with their own special cover.

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And she was out of the room for

roughly four seconds before a bunch

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of kids started sort of teasing

and harassing the kind of boy that

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they always teased and harassed.

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And they took his notebook and they

ripped off the cover and he was crying.

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She came back into this chaotic

scene and she was very upset.

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And she said, I'm taking

all of your notebooks back.

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And she collected all of our notebooks.

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And I got very

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upset back.

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And I said, but not all

of us were doing it.

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Not all of us were

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harassing that kid.

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Why are you taking all of our notebooks?

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And she said, did you stand up for him?

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Did you tell them to stop it?

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Did you go out in the

hallway and find a teacher?

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Did you do anything?

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I was like, no.

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I just sat and drew in my

notebook as I was instructed.

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And she said, if you're not part of the

solution, then you're part of the problem.

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And that perhaps isn't exactly what

you meant with your question, but that

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is how I remember and understand my

origin story in progressive politics and

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in a desire, You know, at the risk of

sounding like silly and saccharin and

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grandiose to wanna try to make the worlds

better or at least slightly less shit.

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And the way that that manifested

for me was through the vehicle of

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linguistics and cognitive linguistics

and understanding why certain

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messages resonate and others don't.

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That was something I became interested in.

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Very early on.

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I grew up in a multilingual household.

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My mom speaks seven languages.

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She's an interpreter.

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I grew up speaking multiple languages

and so became sort of fascinated

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with language as a vehicle.

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For, communication, understanding,

learned in my undergraduate studies

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about folks like George Lakoff

and Eve Sweeter and Zan ish.

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And so knew to some degree that we

could construct communication campaigns

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for political issues, whether they be

electoral or you know, social justice

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issues in a way that was less haphazard in

a way that was more this message is more

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likely to resonate with people because

it is built on this metaphor that kind

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of has entailments or in more plain speak

implications that are more advantageous

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for what we need people to understand.

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This one seems not so good and

so on, and so when I then went

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to work in communications.

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I quickly saw, I think as most people

quickly see, at least in political

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communications, you may have a different

experience from the marketing side.

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I'm actually curious that a lot of

the way that messages were decided

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were sort of stick the finger in

the wind and be like, that sounds

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good, or my absolute favorite answer.

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You know, why'd you name your

campaign that the URL wasn't taken?

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I'm like, oh, well then it must be

really compelling if no one in the

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history of the internet wanted it.

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That must be like a really

snappy thing to call it.

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And so seeing sort of the

way that comms was done on

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campaigns, and I mean both like.

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Ballot initiatives, electoral,

but also like issue campaigns.

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And then knowing that, you know, it could

be done this other way, I eventually

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through different twists and turns,

went to graduate school at Berkeley.

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Still live in the Bay area.

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Never, never left after

coming here for that.

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Studied public policy, also

studied with Lake off and on the

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public policy side, became really

steeped in empirical testing.

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So.

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Essentially, at least the way that it

is structured here at, at Berkeley, it's

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kind of like an econometrics degree.

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It's just a lot of statistical methods.

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It's a lot of experiments and like

understanding how to look at polling and

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look at randomized control trials and

understand them So fast forward ahead.

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Worked at a place that no longer exists

called the Rockridge Institute, which

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Lakoff founded, which was intended to take

what had been, you know, arcane academic

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theories around, conceptual metaphor and

apply them to actual political discourse

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to try to change how campaigns were made.

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Went on eventually to, make my own

consulting firm, and then after doing

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it analytically for a while, so like,

ooh, did a big study on metaphors

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for the economy and found that.

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There is a preponderance

of naturalistic metaphors.

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So the economy is unhealthy,

it's thriving, it's suffering.

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We need to resuscitate the patient

versus mechanistic metaphors, we need

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to get the economy on the right track.

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It's on the wrong track.

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Obama famously said, we need to move it

out of R into D, which is both reverse and

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drive, but also Republican and democratic.

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You know, a lot of the language

of economics is actually derived

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from the language of physics.

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You know, we have friction, we have

accelerating job losses, and then doing

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actual experiments that demonstrate

what the analytic conclusions implied,

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which is that when you're likening the

economy to naturalistic things, you are

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actually sort of foregrounding the idea

that it's best left to its own devices.

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Because of course, in cases of emergency,

you know, you want dialysis or you want

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a defibrillator, or you want, you know.

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Whatever.

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Like if you're having a heart attack or

a stroke, you need immediate assistance.

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But as far as breathing, digesting,

the, the business of daily living,

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like you're not trying to get me to

come there and like, push on your

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lungs or like help you swallow.

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That doesn't sound like a good time.

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So in contrast, mechanistic

metaphors, the idea of the economy

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being likened unconsciously to a

vehicle suggests a role for a driver

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Farrah Bostic: Mm mm-hmm.

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Anat Shenker-Osorio: and I do live

in California, Waymo cars aside.

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Most

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Farrah Bostic: On fire or not.

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Yeah.

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Anat Shenker-Osorio: fire or not.

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Most people think of vehicles

as requiring a driver,

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Farrah Bostic: Right.

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Anat Shenker-Osorio: whether they're a

train or a car or a plane or whatever.

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And so then wrote a

book about don't buy it.

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The trouble talking

nonsense about the economy.

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That was like built out of.

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This, but then also started doing

experiments where we would prime people

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with different metaphors and then

ask them their policy preferences.

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And sure enough, people who had been

primed with, a different metaphor,

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let's say for inequality would

want a different level of taxation.

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Farrah Bostic: Mm.

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Mm-hmm.

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Anat Shenker-Osorio: So then fast

forward again, this is the long answer.

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Sorry.

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Did that for a long time.

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Here's a giant research project that you

asked me to do, like you spent money.

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To get me to and get me and many,

many colleagues, these things.

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I didn't do them by myself to, do

a gajillion focus groups, which

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are expensive, and to do a giant

survey or to do a randomized control

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trial or to do all of the above

and then produce what I thought

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were super clear directives, right?

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Say this, don't say that this is a

good message, this is a bad message.

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It's a good metaphor.

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It's a bad metaphor,

this word, not that word.

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And like tried to make them as

kind of clear cut as possible.

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And then sure enough, lo and behold, very,

very few people changed their messaging.

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And it took me a while.

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I'm embarrassed to tell you that I

had to realize that all of the biases

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and heuristics that we all rely upon

as human beings to come to judgements

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on complex issues and deal with the

cacophony of noise that surrounds us.

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Those are just as present in progressive

strategists and activists as anyone else.

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'cause that's how people, people.

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And so just because you spent however

much money to have a new messaging

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solution doesn't mean that when it

comes time to sit down and write your

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press release or give your interview

or write your social media post or

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whatever, you wouldn't default to

whatever your habituated message was.

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That's exactly what would happen.

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So then I began to stay the course

in more lengthy engagements where I

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wouldn't just do the research project.

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Here's the deck, here's

the messaging guide.

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Good luck, but would actually design

sort of full 360 campaigns with ads,

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with slogans, but also with actual

physical events that were designed to

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move out of a old frame into a new one.

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And then the last chapter, I mean

more or less is that I did that

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for a while, had successes, won

some stuff with other people, lost

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some stuff as happens inevitably.

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And I realized that my number one

messaging directive that, asterisk,

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like some terms and conditions

apply, but is say what you're for.

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Say what you're for, say

what you're for that.

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Like if all you've got is two seconds,

three seconds, then the most important

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thing is that you need to tell people

what you want them to do and stop telling

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them what you don't want them to do.

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Farrah Bostic: Mm-hmm.

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Anat Shenker-Osorio: The analogy I

usually use is when you take a kid to a

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pool, a competent lifeguard, if they're

running, will yell, walk, because if

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you yell, don't run at a kid, they'll

start running either to defy you

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or because you yelled, run at them.

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And so we're constantly

telling people, stop this.

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Don't do this.

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Don't have that.

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We don't want this and

this don't have that.

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Thereby feeding the

discourse of the opposition.

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So say what you're for.

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And then I realize that almost all

of my presentations involve me being

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like, look at this terrible message.

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Why are you using this terrible message?

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This is a very bad message.

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This is why this is a very bad message.

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I tested it and now here is

evidence about its badness.

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And so then I came to make a podcast

called Words to Win By Where?

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With some exceptions.

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The episodes are each

about a campaign we won.

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So that I could walk my talk

and be like, no, actually using

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progressive principles, strategies

and messages actually does work.

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Here's proof.

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So that's my story.

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Farrah Bostic: I I'm curious

about any kind of, you know, I

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was reflecting on this earlier.

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Over 20 years of doing this.

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There are some approaches and tools that

I think are valuable for developing a

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strategy that's like clear, decisive,

everybody knows what to do, and then

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there's stuff that's like, it's great.

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It might be the gold standard.

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It's,

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If you have the time and the money and and

the team and the resources and everything

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else, go ahead.

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But it also might just sort of

yield a lot of that like academic

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stuff that everyone just kind of

memory holes or goes, you know, goes

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one in one ear and out the other.

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I'm curious if you've had any evolutions

on, like, methods that you think are

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still worth doing and methods that

you think are like, if we've got the

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time and the resources, let's do it.

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If we don't, there are better tools.

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Anat Shenker-Osorio: Yeah, I mean, you

know, as like messaging research lady,

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Farrah Bostic: Mm-hmm.

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Anat Shenker-Osorio: spend a lot of my

time telling people not to do research,

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Farrah Bostic: Same.

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Anat Shenker-Osorio: and oftentimes

in progressive landia doing

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research is a substitution.

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For not doing organizing,

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because organizing is hard and it is labor

intensive and it is resource intensive.

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And so, maybe the solution is we'll just

do another project to try to figure out

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the exact wording choices to sell people

convince people that like, actually

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immigrants are awesome and you know, we're

all the better for having them here and,

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and that we should pass X, Y, Z policy.

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And in fact, a message is like

a baton that has to be passed

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from person to person to person.

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And if it gets dropped anywhere

along the way, by definition

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it can't persuade them, which.

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Seems like the most obvious thing in

the entire world, that a message that

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nobody hears cannot persuade them.

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And for some reason that concept,

which I would argue is probably the

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least controversial thing that I ever

say, is something that I have been

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pretty much incapable of getting.

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Certainly the Democratic establishment.

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And you know, I don't just work in

the US like the Labor Party in the

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uk, you know, other center left

parties in other places to understand.

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But like oftentimes, especially right

now in the middle of the throes of

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this fascist power grab, you wanna

like stop and have deep thoughts

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about the feelings of American men.

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Like are you fucking kidding me?

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So.

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I just, you know, we

don't, got time for that.

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And also we are sitting

on a pretty giant body

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Of research into

perceptions and persuasion.

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The problem is that we haven't actually

come up with strategy and we don't

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have the rigor and the discipline of

implementation because it's been a very

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long time since there has been robust

sustained organizing in this country.

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And part of that is the intentional

and very deliberate destruction

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of labor unions, which of course

is like a basis and an important

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hub and home for organizing.

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But it is also because there was a

shift many years ago in progressive

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organizations away from organizing

toward what is known as field.

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Field is GOTV.

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It's registering voters.

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It's turning them out, you know, during

the week or the day of or whatever.

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And those are important things to

do, but we can't vote our way to

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democracy and the idea that we ever

could have is slightly mind-boggling.

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And so we became trapped in a thing

where we had to keep telling people

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to go vote, to go vote, to go vote.

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But we aren't capable of providing them

candidates that feel meaningful to them.

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And the act of voting and electing people

actually all too often doesn't alter

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the material conditions of their lives.

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And then we have to go through and

convince them again when old school

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organizing is, you know, old wait,

awakening people to a political analysis.

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All of their own power and then

getting them to view themselves as

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agents so that they then act as your

choir to go awaken other people.

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I feel like I, I got

away from your question.

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I'm sorry.

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Farrah Bostic: No, actually you, you

got to my kind of hidden question,

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which is, you know, the first

question was how did you get to here?

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My second hidden question was, how

did the Democratic party get to here?

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I mean, Mike and I have talked about

this also, the kind of deliberate

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dismantling of the influence And also the

power of labor unions as an organizing

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force And as one allied with.

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Progressive politics.

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But that organizing piece, I think is

the thing that I'm also kind of, was

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getting at with methods that

are useful versus not, because

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it does feel like everyone is

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like, I need $20 million

to study young men.

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We need to do testing on which, you

know, podcast format is the most

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persuasive to those young men.

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We need to do infinite numbers of

randomized controlled trials which Like is

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a thing we almost never do in marketing.

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Like we, we do them, but not really.

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And it's because it's just sort of

like, that's expensive, it's time

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consuming, and we already kind of know

the direction we're heading in because

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we've already done this other work.

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And like, we need to get to a

decision and we need to go make

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stuff and put it out in the market.

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, How much testing do we wanna do?

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So the other thing we look for

is like big sweeping differences.

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Not little incremental conjoint

analyses of different configurations

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of the exact same message over and over

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Anat Shenker-Osorio: oh, the number of

max diff analyses that I have to sit

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through and the like idea, I'm sorry

to cut you off, but like the idea

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that the ads that you tested in an

RCTA randomized control trial for your

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audience, you've probably explained

what that is before, where you've forced

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people to give you their attention and

they are required to read your a hundred

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words or 70 words, or listen through

your 32nd ad, or, you know, look at

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your slogan or whatever you're testing.

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And know that they're consciously

being studied, are aware that they're

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like in an experimental condition.

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And then you think that that has any

sort of meaningful relationship to

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the real world where the number one

job of the message is to make people

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stop scrolling in the first place.

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Farrah Bostic: Right,

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Anat Shenker-Osorio: And if they're not

willing to listen to your thing, because

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you sound like the adults in the Peanuts

cartoon, you know, then this beautiful

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thing that you know, tested So perfectly

in this like encapsulated a hundred word

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or 30 second or whatever version with the

visuals that you picked out just right.

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And like the song cues that

you picked out just right.

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And to be clear, I'm a person

who does RCTs, like, I think

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that they have a purpose.

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They can signal directionality,

they can, if you're gonna take

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big swings, which you should.

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I often tell people if you do.

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A survey or an RCT or whatever

and you don't have anything.

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Bomb abysmally.

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Bomb abysmally.

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That means that you wasted a lot

of money testing ecru against

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off-white, against eggshell.

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And like some of these tests,

they end up being the world's

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most expensive copy editing.

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They're experimenting with

like the most minuscule.

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And for the most part, those

differences are so small that you

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can't actually detect anything

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. In an RCT and, Yeah.

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Farrah Bostic: Yeah.

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Yeah.

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I mean this is, you know, in the, in

the universe of doing multivariate or

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AB testing for messaging for startups or

something that, that I have worked with.

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One of the biggest challenges has

been to get them to test things

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that are actually different

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:

from each other there's a, a

kind of famous story about Google

370

:

testing, I don't know, 57 shades

of blue or something like that.

371

:

And this became like , the kind of hot

topic du jour amongst UX researchers

372

:

was, we're gonna do this incredible

multivariate testing and get really

373

:

specific about stuff, to your point,

really expensive copy editing,

374

:

really expensive art direction.

375

:

And it's, you know, there are

so many problems with this.

376

:

Like most startups just don't have the

site traffic of Google to be able to see

377

:

significant to their business lift from

one shade of blue to another or whatever.

378

:

But this is.

379

:

There is a, there is a book that

is called testing to destruction.

380

:

And this is like the thing we're

all trying to hopefully avoid in

381

:

our work is not test to the point

that we, there's just nothing left.

382

:

But to your, equally to your point,

something has to fail otherwise

383

:

you're just sort of, I don't know.

384

:

I used to work for a company

that was always like,

385

:

we're here to maximize ideas.

386

:

It's not a bake off or a beauty contest.

387

:

And I was always like, actually,

my clients would like to know

388

:

which of their babies is ugly.

389

:

And I should probably tell them

because they're not all beautiful.

390

:

They never are.

391

:

But that, that also leads me

to kind of this question about

392

:

what they choose to test.

393

:

Because I mean, during the election

there were some of these, you know,

394

:

these MaxDiff tests that were being,

shared by various groups that were

395

:

doing these kinds of message tests.

396

:

And I just kept looking at those

statements going, there's all kinds

397

:

of stuff you didn't ask about.

398

:

And so what were your kind of ingoing

beliefs about what was relevant to voters,

399

:

And how sure are you about those things?

400

:

And how much of those are actually

just sort of dictated by your

401

:

donors or dictated by your own

beliefs about what centrist policies

402

:

win elections or whatever, and

I'm, I'm curious about how should

403

:

those tests be constructed?

404

:

If you're gonna do them how

are they typically constructed?

405

:

Anat Shenker-Osorio: I mean, it's

hard to speak in the aggregate

406

:

like that because like, it depends.

407

:

It depends.

408

:

Is it a big old test which happens

less frequently on like how to

409

:

talk about trans people and getting

affirmative healthcare, which,

410

:

we've done lots and lots of work on.

411

:

Is it about trying to make

a case for immigrant rights?

412

:

Is it about, Kamala Harris and how to

best sell Kamala Harris or someone in a

413

:

Senate race or someone in a house race?

414

:

So.

415

:

It depends a little bit.

416

:

But when I am doing these

417

:

Farrah Bostic: Mm-hmm.

418

:

Anat Shenker-Osorio: the first step

that my team takes is that we conduct a

419

:

language analysis in order to understand

the range of ways a thing could

420

:

possibly be argued in the first place.

421

:

And we go looking across many

different sources, pop culture

422

:

what we call unmotivated speech.

423

:

So these are people posting on social, but

they haven't been like directed to do so.

424

:

So the difference between like, you know,

use hashtag no kings and like say why

425

:

you're marching, that would be motivated.

426

:

Social speech versus just like

someone posting about, you

427

:

know, I can't stand taxes.

428

:

I can't believe I have to pay taxes.

429

:

If you're doing a project on

like how to reframe taxes.

430

:

So, down to, I've done projects on

perceptions of pregnancy in order

431

:

to better understand what effective

abortion messaging would be, and like

432

:

spent lots of time looking at people

and us because celebrity pregnancy, I

433

:

mean, they love to talk about pregnancy.

434

:

And so the formulation of public

consciousness about an idea,

435

:

let's stick with pregnancy.

436

:

Like where does it come from?

437

:

I mean, partly it comes from what

to expect when you're expecting.

438

:

Partly it comes from like the cover

photo of Beyonce, pregnant with twins,

439

:

but you know, partly it comes from

kind of cultural stories, whatever.

440

:

So what is the range of ways people

could possibly reason about this thing,

441

:

and which ones seem most promising

and which ones seem most problematic?

442

:

And then from

443

:

there, construct different

frames that really differ.

444

:

And so like to, to give you a super

concrete, for instance, a hundred

445

:

years ago I did a big project with an

organization called America's Voice.

446

:

And it was led by a

strategist named Ryan Clayton.

447

:

It was with Lake Research

Partners to really try to get at

448

:

like, how could we reframe this

entire immigrant rights debate.

449

:

This was 2012, or may have even been

:

450

:

And in that, during the language

analysis, the initial phase, we also

451

:

did these elicitation interviews,

452

:

language analysis is, let's look at

the range of ways this is communicated

453

:

about both in opposition and in

popular culture and in advocacy.

454

:

Elicitation interviews are

only with true believers like

455

:

people who are pro your thing.

456

:

And we asked, and we did like a hundred.

457

:

Ryan was very thorough of these interviews

and we asked all these immigrant rights

458

:

advocates, how would you describe who

an immigrant is to a 4-year-old child?

459

:

Farrah Bostic: Mm-hmm.

460

:

Anat Shenker-Osorio: And almost

universally they said a person who moves.

461

:

And in the language analysis prior

to doing these interviews, one of my

462

:

subheadings was there's very little

immigrating in the immigration debate.

463

:

And it was noting, you know

what's interesting about this

464

:

debate in the discourse is

that there's a lot about harms.

465

:

There's restrictions, there's the border,

there's status, there's visas, there's

466

:

green cards, there's this, there's that.

467

:

You know, there's like putting food on the

table, there's families, there's whatever.

468

:

But there's very little

discourse about moving.

469

:

. And again, people say

like, what is an immigrant?

470

:

It's a person who moves.

471

:

So then when we're constructing the

frames to test, one of the frames

472

:

that I wrote was the same is true

today has been throughout history.

473

:

People move to make life

better for themselves.

474

:

It's hard to move, to pack up

everything and go to a new place.

475

:

Takes courage.

476

:

But you do it to get your kid

into a better school, put food on

477

:

the table, or make a better life.

478

:

Immigrant Americans move here

for the promise of freedom and

479

:

opportunity in this country.

480

:

And we think that's great.

481

:

America's supposed to be the land

of the free and the home of the

482

:

brave, and that's a good thing.

483

:

So let's make it that way.

484

:

We tested that.

485

:

We tested a traditional nation of

immigrants message and we swung

486

:

into a message that I knew would

not work, but I wanted to see

487

:

who liked it and who hated it.

488

:

I called that message,

immigrants are bad asses.

489

:

It more or less went.

490

:

You see a fence and you

think I'll jump over it.

491

:

Someone tells you no and you hear,

convince me you don't follow the rules.

492

:

You make your own rules, and that's

why people who came here without

493

:

documentation are more American than the

people who wasted all that time in line.

494

:

I was like, let's write a message in

which undocumented immigrants are better

495

:

Farrah Bostic: Mm.

496

:

Anat Shenker-Osorio: or can we, can we

actually go all the way over there and

497

:

be like, no, let's just get into the

John Wayne cowboy of it all and be like.

498

:

Farrah Bostic: Yeah.

499

:

Anat Shenker-Osorio: Fuck it.

500

:

I'm gonna make my own way.

501

:

And you know, that message,

502

:

obviously, I'm never gonna promote

a message that says you hear no

503

:

and you think it means convince me.

504

:

Farrah Bostic: Right?

505

:

Anat Shenker-Osorio: So that

wasn't ever gonna go out.

506

:

But I wanted to understand who in my very

large sample this scratched an itch for.

507

:

And so the point of this

illustration is that people move

508

:

was extraordinarily successful.

509

:

And when I say successful, I mean this

is the other problem with the testing.

510

:

The dependent variables selected are.

511

:

All too often approval with the message.

512

:

I'm like, the message isn't

running for homecoming queen.

513

:

The message's job isn't to

garner greater approval.

514

:

The message's job is to move people

from, not wanting the policy to

515

:

wanting the policy, but equally,

if not more importantly, from

516

:

wanting to do something about it.

517

:

Because in reality, in this country, as

you know, public opinion is meaningless.

518

:

I know, 'cause I get paid to measure it.

519

:

The number of policies that

have supermajority support

520

:

Farrah Bostic: Mm-hmm.

521

:

Anat Shenker-Osorio: super, you know.

522

:

Like different kinds of gun restrictive

measures, legalized abortion, raising the

523

:

minimum wage, having available healthcare

like you and I could go on and on.

524

:

We could list policies that have

majority, if not 80, 90% approval.

525

:

What political scientists have shown

is that the correlation between public

526

:

approval for a policy and its likelihood

of passing is essentially zero.

527

:

. And so if we know that, then why are

we chasing after approval when the

528

:

only thing that actually predicates.

529

:

A policy being passed or a policy

people hate being blocked is action.

530

:

Why aren't we attempting to measure for,

would this make you want to get up off the

531

:

couch and go put your body on the line?

532

:

As we saw during the ACA fight in

the first Trumpocene to be like,

533

:

hell no, over my literal dead

body, because that's the only thing

534

:

that actually alters conditions.

535

:

Farrah Bostic: Mm-hmm.

536

:

I mean, this is, there are parallels

in our universe of years ago, we

537

:

basically abandoned the likability

question we show you an ad and

538

:

ask you if you like it, who cares?

539

:

Does it change your mind about anything?

540

:

Or you gonna more likely to buy it?

541

:

Less likely to buy it?

542

:

Does it turn you on?

543

:

Turn you off?

544

:

Those things are.

545

:

Far more important.

546

:

So we have a host of other

measures as opposed to as

547

:

opposed to just pure likability.

548

:

Similarly, I think, I hope most of us

have abandoned the the recall metric.

549

:

Like, do you remember

seeing an ad from Tide?

550

:

People are gonna say yes or no,

but it who care again, who cares?

551

:

Like what do you remember about it

is frankly more important than that.

552

:

You remember that you ever saw a message

for it and a lot of times you just see

553

:

correlations of like how well known

the brand already is, gives you kind

554

:

of artificially high recall scores.

555

:

The fun one is to ask, do you

recall seeing an ad from Brand

556

:

X in the last three months?

557

:

But we haven't run any ads in

the last three months, right?

558

:

And people, yeah, I have heard, I have

seen some ads because I've heard of you.

559

:

And so they just take

that as a proxy for it.

560

:

So instead what we turned

to was a recognition score.

561

:

So we show you some like two seconds

from the ad that doesn't have the

562

:

product or the name in it, and

ask you if you've seen it before.

563

:

And then if you can identify the brand.

564

:

And if you say, oh yeah, I've seen that,

and you correctly identify the brand,

565

:

then we know that that ad like lodged

in your brain somewhere, like you will

566

:

recognize it again when you see it.

567

:

And we know that like recognition

is a, is a proxy for familiarity.

568

:

And the more that, we, we have

a whole kind of idea of like

569

:

mental and physical availability.

570

:

And mental availability is, I

know you, when I see you, I know.

571

:

I, I recognize you.

572

:

And in the store I ran an experiment

once with my mom 'cause I was trying

573

:

to explain years ago, Tropic changed

their packaging and went to this

574

:

like extremely streamlined

Send Serif font.

575

:

The straw was gone, The literal

orange was gone, the bubbly type

576

:

face for Tropicana was gone.

577

:

And sales just were demolished by this.

578

:

And the reason was not, people said

they hated the redesign, but the real

579

:

issue is when they went into the store,

they couldn't find the Tropicana.

580

:

Anat Shenker-Osorio: Right.

581

:

Farrah Bostic: Because it didn't

look like Tropicana anymore.

582

:

and so I played this game with

my mom where we were about to

583

:

walk down like a canned soup or

canned goods aisle at Target.

584

:

And I was like, okay, before we walk

down the aisle, before we walk down the

585

:

aisle, I want you to just tell me, if

I say Del Monte, what do you picture?

586

:

If I say Campbell's, what do you

587

:

picture?

588

:

If I say Hunts?

589

:

what do you picture?

590

:

Whatever.

591

:

And she was like, red,

green, red and white.

592

:

And I

593

:

was like, right.

594

:

You don't have to read the label to

595

:

know

596

:

which can is which when you walk down

the aisle, you can, in your peripheral

597

:

vision, grab a Campbell soup can,

the only reason you're reading it

598

:

is to tell the difference between

cream of mushroom and chicken noodle.

599

:

Like that's, that's the

only thing you're doing.

600

:

And there's a lot of those

kinds of metrics that

601

:

are just far more useful.

602

:

And every time I see, like there were,

I can't remember who did it, there

603

:

was some conjoint analysis of various

messages about Kamala Harris during

604

:

the campaign that were like all

the ones that are positive and

605

:

about her background, those perform

better than all of the ones that

606

:

also have anything negative to say

607

:

about Trump in it.

608

:

And this seemed to be wrapped

up in the narrative of everybody

609

:

already knows how bad Trump is

We don't have, that's baked in.

610

:

We don't have to persuade

anymore about that.

611

:

But we have to, you know,

make her knowable to people.

612

:

We have to introduce her.

613

:

to people 'cause they

don't know much about her.

614

:

And, and again, like the metric was

which of these messages do you like the

615

:

best as opposed to like.

616

:

Do they actually move the needle in

any particular way on your behavior?

617

:

Anat Shenker-Osorio: to be fair.

618

:

The, the kind of gold standard

metric when it comes close to

619

:

election time is usually vote choice.

620

:

So usually what is being measured

in an RCT is people in all the

621

:

conditions, the control condition,

and all of the treatment conditions

622

:

are asked, you know, if the election

were held today, vote, vote him,

623

:

vote her vote, you know, whatever.

624

:

And it's a logical metric.

625

:

It's, that makes sense.

626

:

But here's the issues with it.

627

:

The first is that in many of these tests,

it would asked as a two-way instead

628

:

of a, and by a four way, I mean third

party and stay at home in reality,

629

:

the choice is not Harris or Trump.

630

:

The reality is Harris Trump,

when he was still there, RFK.

631

:

But most importantly there is always a

third candidate in our two party system.

632

:

And the third candidate is the couch.

633

:

Farrah Bostic: Right.

634

:

Anat Shenker-Osorio: So that's one thing.

635

:

And, and some of them did do

four way and some of them didn't.

636

:

Whatever.

637

:

I'm not making a blanket statement.

638

:

But the other challenge

is that mobilization,

639

:

are you gonna vote?

640

:

Are you not gonna vote?

641

:

Is extraordinarily hard to measure

because it is the, I will pay

642

:

you tomorrow of public opinion

research, by which I mean it is the

643

:

thing people lie about most often.

644

:

So lie isn't even fair.

645

:

They mean their answer.

646

:

Like they, they do mean that they're

going to, because regardless of

647

:

voter participation rates, voting

is a socially positive behavior.

648

:

Like you're supposed to vote, people know

you're, that you're supposed to vote.

649

:

And so you know, are you going to vote?

650

:

the answer is yes.

651

:

Right?

652

:

And in general, anytime people are

surveyed about their intention to vote,

653

:

it's like 90% of people are gonna vote.

654

:

But like that's never happened.

655

:

So clearly some people are wrong.

656

:

that.

657

:

And you know, we don't know

which ones that's the issue.

658

:

So I mean, in some cases we know,

like we know that habitual voters

659

:

are going to be habitual voters

because they always are gonna vote.

660

:

But among the, the infrequent

voters or among the newly

661

:

eligible, like we don't know.

662

:

So basically because mobilization is very

difficult to measure in channel, that's

663

:

what all of these tests are in channel.

664

:

You have a captive audience.

665

:

What's essentially happened is that the

mainstream kind of democratic outfits that

666

:

have all the money and all the power and

all the decision making they've chosen

667

:

just not to try to measure it because

668

:

Farrah Bostic: Hmm.

669

:

Anat Shenker-Osorio: it, it

doesn't sort of translate infield.

670

:

Like 90% of people telling you

they're gonna vote is not 90% of

671

:

people telling you uh, actually vote.

672

:

So they just measure vote choice.

673

:

Instead of experimenting with different

ways of trying to get an indicator

674

:

on mobilization, which could involve,

for example, embedding within a

675

:

test, like a voter registration link.

676

:

Do people click on it or

do they not click on it?

677

:

Embedding within a test, a donation page.

678

:

If someone is willing to do that,

that's a higher bar than voting.

679

:

So that's not a perfect measure.

680

:

You can't get a perfect measure.

681

:

But like that's something, so there

are things that we could be doing,

682

:

Farrah Bostic: Mm-hmm.

683

:

Anat Shenker-Osorio: but instead there

is just this default setting that

684

:

mobilization can't be measured in channel.

685

:

And again, I'm saying it is

very difficult to measure.

686

:

Farrah Bostic: Mm-hmm.

687

:

Anat Shenker-Osorio: And

so we're just gonna measure

688

:

vote, choice, IE, persuasion,

689

:

Farrah Bostic: Right.

690

:

Anat Shenker-Osorio: and we're going

to measure persuasion among a general

691

:

population, not just among people

who we actually credibly believe.

692

:

Would vote for us.

693

:

We are not going to put extra emphasis

as I would on messages that our base

694

:

is likely to actually wanna repeat

to other people or wear the t-shirt

695

:

or wear the hat or wear the slogan.

696

:

Thereby acting as social proof to

other people, which is something

697

:

that the right absolutely is

obsessed with and rightly so.

698

:

What is the thing our

choir's gonna wanna sing?

699

:

What will our choir say to other people?

700

:

Farrah Bostic: You, you just gave me

a funny, like, I, I just immediately

701

:

got a glimpse of a applying a kind of

shopper marketing method to this, which

702

:

would be you expose 'em to a whole bunch

of messages, and then you show them a

703

:

merch store and ask them to fill a cart.

704

:

Like that would be really

interesting actually.

705

:

Like literally, would you get

the hat of any of these messages?

706

:

Would you buy the tote bag?

707

:

Would you put the bumper

sticker on your car?

708

:

That's actually like, that would

be a fun, that would be a fun

709

:

one to try at the very least.

710

:

Anat Shenker-Osorio: One of the questions

we often ask people is, especially

711

:

now that we've like very much just

moved into testing, at least for me

712

:

on activation and what would activate

people, what would make people wanna

713

:

get out and do nonviolent direct action?

714

:

Because I genuinely believe that the

only way out of authoritarian rule

715

:

is for a sustained mobilization.

716

:

We are not going to vote

our way to democracy.

717

:

It's not going to happen.

718

:

We're not gonna sue our

way to democracy either.

719

:

And to be clear, voting

and suing very important.

720

:

And we need to do those things.

721

:

And I admire the lawyers and all of, and

I work with them and like God bless them.

722

:

Heroes work.

723

:

Not arguing shouldn't happen.

724

:

I'm saying necessary, not sufficient.

725

:

So one of the things we often ask

is we will write out different

726

:

slogans and we will ask people,

which of these signs Would you

727

:

be willing to carry at a protest?

728

:

I.

729

:

Farrah Bostic: Mm.

730

:

Anat Shenker-Osorio: Which is kind

of similar to your merch store

731

:

Farrah Bostic: Well, that one

actually feels higher stakes, right?

732

:

Like, now I have to imagine

myself going to a protest and

733

:

carrying a sign, right?

734

:

Not just like walking along with a

friend of mine, hidden in the crowd,

735

:

kind of thing like that, that that

ratchets up the stakes in a really

736

:

interesting way.

737

:

I mean, this is something that

I have seen people, you know,

738

:

on Blue Sky and elsewhere talking about

is the desire to have kind of more.

739

:

More

740

:

experiments And less just measurement in

some of , the research that's being done.

741

:

And then I think the other thing,

to go back to something you said

742

:

earlier is the, just the question

of like breakthrough and attention.

743

:

Like, I have forced

exposure to these things.

744

:

you could also imagine some kind of

745

:

like this, I, I personally wouldn't wanna

take this test, but like, so don't do it.

746

:

almost like a reading comprehension

test where it's like, it's a scroll.

747

:

You're gonna read, you know, you're

gonna scroll through a dozen posts

748

:

and then be asked about, do you

remember anything being about,

749

:

This topic or this candidate or

politics in general or whatever.

750

:

And just see like, did

751

:

anything actually get them to stop?

752

:

They're also just

753

:

like UX tools you could use

to actually see where people

754

:

stop and click through to a

755

:

link or something like that.

756

:

There's a million ways to experiment with

these things and I'm, sounds like maybe

757

:

you're starting to play with more of those

758

:

Anat Shenker-Osorio: Yeah.

759

:

and I

760

:

Farrah Bostic: there's

a real appetite for it.

761

:

Anat Shenker-Osorio: even quite

simply, and I'm not saying nobody

762

:

does this, 'cause they do you know,

they'll do YouTube pre-roll ads

763

:

and then they'll do some sort of

764

:

survey administered like.

765

:

A week later or whatever or, I don't

know how much this is happening, but

766

:

I hope it's happening more in an RCT

where you do have a captive audience.

767

:

They'll make ads skippable

768

:

Farrah Bostic: Mm-hmm.

769

:

Oh, interesting.

770

:

Yeah.

771

:

Anat Shenker-Osorio: I mean, it,

it's not in every test that people

772

:

get some sort of cash benefit.

773

:

Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't.

774

:

It depends.

775

:

But like, if you skip the thing,

you still get your whatever as

776

:

long as you answer the questions

777

:

Farrah Bostic: Mm-hmm.

778

:

Anat Shenker-Osorio: And so that

is some sort of indicator about

779

:

whether or not something is boring.

780

:

Farrah Bostic: Right.

781

:

Anat Shenker-Osorio: And, you

know, there's a lot of boring.

782

:

And not only is there a lot of boring, in

addition to the fact that that means that

783

:

people won't watch the thing or listen

to the thing or both, it also means that.

784

:

A lot of political advertising

wears on its sleeve.

785

:

The fact of itself is political

advertising, which I liken to your

786

:

romantic partner saying to you, we

need to talk before they're gonna tell

787

:

you whatever they're gonna tell you.

788

:

And I think anyone who has heard the

words we need to talk their body I mean

789

:

it probably happened, you and I are not

spoiler alert in a romantic relationship.

790

:

Who knows anything's possible in the

future, but, yeah, like your whole body

791

:

just tends, you're like, Ooh, I don't,

I don't think I want this to happen.

792

:

I don't think this is

gonna be a good time.

793

:

I'm not excited about,

whatever's gonna happen next.

794

:

And so a lot of political advertising

is like, I'm going to talk to you about

795

:

a political issue when most people are

like, the last thing on earth I want

796

:

to hear about is a political issue.

797

:

and before you tell them what you

want to tell them about your candidate

798

:

or about your topic, or about your

bill, or about your ballot initiative,

799

:

or whatever you've signaled to them

800

:

. That you're going to make them

like listen to something, a

801

:

topic that they find anathema.

802

:

Farrah Bostic: How does this kind

of create, I mean this, this,

803

:

feels like it would then explain

some of the kind of distance from

804

:

real people that it seems like

805

:

a lot of kind of

establishment politics has.

806

:

I mean, particularly, I'm gonna just say

particularly for the Democrats because I

807

:

pay more attention to them deliberately,

it seems like things have become

808

:

really professionalized, really added

809

:

distance to your point about more of

a focus on turnout than on organizing.

810

:

And I mean, in

811

:

2016, I went to Coatesville, Pennsylvania

to, to canvas for the Clinton campaign.

812

:

And I mean, we were there on a

Sunday, there was an Eagles game

813

:

on, nobody wanted to answer the door.

814

:

And those who did, several of the

folks we talked to said something along

815

:

the lines of, you guys just show up

816

:

when there's an election and then

we never hear from you again.

817

:

Anat Shenker-Osorio: Yep.

818

:

Farrah Bostic: And that really

was the thing that made me the

819

:

most kind of curious about,

820

:

was there ever a point in time where there

was more community organizing presence

821

:

on a continuous

822

:

basis?

823

:

I mean, obviously you've got like

the Tammany Hall kind of machine

824

:

democratic politics version of that.

825

:

But that kind of move to leave the

politics to us, you just give us

826

:

cash a little bit of time during

election years and your vote, and

827

:

that's all we really need from you.

828

:

You know, kind of like it, it reminds me

of the sort of idea of if you don't have

829

:

a seat at the table, you're on the menu.

830

:

And that that's sort of what has

been left for voters as a role

831

:

in politics

832

:

is.

833

:

Vote.

834

:

And to your point,

835

:

I mean, we had this conversation

during the Iraq war that you're

836

:

not gonna vote your way to a

837

:

democracy.

838

:

Elections are not the thing that makes a

839

:

democracy, a democracy.

840

:

And I, you know, we have not applied that

learning to ourselves either, but that

841

:

does seem like a thing that just creates

like an unnecessary amount of distance

842

:

between people who are trying to get

elected and, and to create the policy

843

:

structures that we want theoretically

and the people who want them.

844

:

And, and maybe leads to this kind of

weird situation where we're getting a lot

845

:

of candidates we're not excited about.

846

:

Anat Shenker-Osorio: Yeah.

847

:

I mean, Mike Podhorzer says

that Congress is the complaint

848

:

department for capitalism.

849

:

That, and Democrats in particular.

850

:

And so there's this performance that

happens every two years, every four years.

851

:

Where you are meant to feel like you

have a say in your own future because

852

:

you get to select, team Red, team Blue.

853

:

And then in reality, the people who

are actually in charge are the people

854

:

who financed Team Red and Team Blue.

855

:

But there's a customer service

hotline, which is the congressional

856

:

switchboard, which you can like if

you're diligently doing your five calls.

857

:

And to be clear, I'm not saying you

shouldn't be doing these things.

858

:

Like things are complicated and

I'm reducing it intentionally, but

859

:

really that congressional switchboard

where you like put in your phone

860

:

call for whatever you're not calling

the people, making the decision.

861

:

You are calling the people that

they have put there as the front

862

:

face and , you know your cus you're,

you're a very valued customer.

863

:

Your call will be answered in the

order in which it was received.

864

:

And like, then you can feel like I did

a thing and I said a thing and, and this

865

:

person that's like meant to represent

me in the system, heard the thing.

866

:

And obviously not all Democrats, this

is the one place where the hashtag

867

:

is accurate and it does apply.

868

:

And it is true that not all Democrats

and, and it is also true that not all

869

:

Democrats are actually on the side of

working people and the only people on

870

:

the side of working people are Democrats.

871

:

Those two things are both true.

872

:

That is what is so

fundamentally frustrating

873

:

Farrah Bostic: Mm-hmm.

874

:

Anat Shenker-Osorio: and.

875

:

Because the other side, I

mean they're fascists like it.

876

:

It's very simple.

877

:

Basically to some degree, people are aware

that elections are really a choice between

878

:

their billionaires and our billionaires.

879

:

And their billionaires are more

unhinged, more white nationalist,

880

:

more cutthroat, more evil.

881

:

And our billionaires are like polite.

882

:

They're like nicer,

883

:

Farrah Bostic: Yeah.

884

:

Anat Shenker-Osorio: Yeah.

885

:

But as far as having an actual

party that is for working people

886

:

and that understands that there are

sides, a rising tide, it turns out

887

:

lifts only yachts, not all boats.

888

:

Farrah Bostic: Right.

889

:

Anat Shenker-Osorio: people

get drowned in a rising tide.

890

:

'cause some people they don't have a boat.

891

:

You know why?

892

:

Because billionaires stole all the wood.

893

:

. When Democrats were absolutely aware

of the fact that there were sides,

894

:

and I'm talking back in the day,

I'm talking about A FDR, right?

895

:

He said, I welcome your hatred.

896

:

I welcome your ire.

897

:

Bring it on, right?

898

:

Speaking of the robber barons of

the day, then it was very clear

899

:

and, and Democrats did not have a

working class problem because working

900

:

class people didn't just vote.

901

:

Democratic being democratic was

core part of their identity.

902

:

It was like the sports

team they rooted for.

903

:

It was in their blood,

it was in their family.

904

:

It was only when, and this is true

not just in the US but elsewhere.

905

:

Neoliberalism is the midwife and

the hand made into authoritarianism.

906

:

It always has been.

907

:

Farrah Bostic: Mm-hmm.

908

:

Anat Shenker-Osorio: Because once you

start saying no, there aren't signs,

909

:

Farrah Bostic: Mm-hmm.

910

:

Anat Shenker-Osorio: a rising tide

will lift all boats and we can

911

:

just grow our economy and that

will make everybody better off.

912

:

And all we need to do is focus on

the GDP and let's mi ourselves into a

913

:

conversation in which our side says,

you know how you grow the economy?

914

:

You make sweet love to the economy by

paying people slightly more and like

915

:

letting them maybe have a weekend.

916

:

And their side says, the way that

you make sweet love to the economy

917

:

is by giving rich people more money.

918

:

But we've agreed to

have the same argument.

919

:

Farrah Bostic: Yeah.

920

:

I mean this, this you know, the

other day I think Pete Buttigieg

921

:

was on some podcast I was

922

:

listening to, and he said words that

I heard, but clearly the host did

923

:

not hear as

924

:

we're gonna need

925

:

UBI and with the coming AI revolution,

we're going to eliminate all of

926

:

this work that's gonna be great.

927

:

There's all this leisure time

you can spend with your family

928

:

and friends and pursuing hobbies

and living this bucolic lifestyle

929

:

that was long ago, promised to us.

930

:

And yet, like my core question

is, but as long as we have.

931

:

Neoliberalism capital and

billionaires who is going to

932

:

pay me not to work because

stuff still costs money.

933

:

And do we really believe, do I

really believe in my heart of

934

:

hearts that that laborist

future that I'm being

935

:

promised comes with a UBI and is

936

:

that UBI sufficient to

have a dignified life?

937

:

And like I, I, mean, where we're

sitting right now, my basic

938

:

belief is hell no, they're never gonna pay

me not to work ever, but they're perfectly

939

:

happy to force me out of work because they

never wanted to pay me in the first place.

940

:

And then that will be the justification.

941

:

And you see it in the welfare debate

where it's like, no, we gotta, you

942

:

gotta prove you're working, you're

trying to work in order to qualify for

943

:

benefits, even though the reason you

can't work is 'cause you can't work.

944

:

Anat Shenker-Osorio: Yeah.

945

:

And, maybe I'm taking

us on a meander, but COV

946

:

Farrah Bostic: Mm.

947

:

Anat Shenker-Osorio: was a perfect

example of an extraordinary

948

:

opportunity that we squandered

949

:

. Because COVID actually, much like

this moment in an interesting way,

950

:

opened up a giant persuasion window.

951

:

Farrah Bostic: Yes.

952

:

Anat Shenker-Osorio:

So a persuasion window.

953

:

I don't know if you've talked about this,

but basically it's just this idea that

954

:

there are certain moments in time where

people are just more open and susceptible

955

:

to persuasion than other times,

956

:

. So what I mean by that is an ad that

was about universal single payer

957

:

healthcare that was tested in, you

958

:

know, early February of 2020.

959

:

If that ad like demonstrated that

it moved people towards support

960

:

of that policy by, let's say three

points tested at the end of March.

961

:

It was moving people by 10 points, 15

points, because suddenly this event

962

:

occurred that people did not anticipate,

that had them rethinking what is

963

:

healthcare, where does it come from,

why do I need it, how does it occur?

964

:

And then further, we actually experienced

in this, our United States an instant of

965

:

socialized medicine in the form of mass

distributed in very short order given

966

:

you know, how long it takes to study

and produce vaccines and put them out.

967

:

Vaccines that were given to

people for free masks that were

968

:

given tests that were given.

969

:

You know, here we were living the

horror of socialized medicine.

970

:

Like we were not talking about it.

971

:

We were not like taking videos

of Canada and trying to prove to

972

:

people, no, really it would be okay.

973

:

No, really it would be okay.

974

:

No, really it would work.

975

:

We promise it would work because

as much as I work on messaging,

976

:

there is nothing that you can say

to people that is as persuasive

977

:

as what they actually experience.

978

:

And so here were people experiencing

government doing a thing,

979

:

Farrah Bostic: Mm-hmm.

980

:

Anat Shenker-Osorio: but instead of using

that opening where people were, where

981

:

public opinion was shifting about a desire

for universal single payer healthcare and.

982

:

Not all people, obviously people who

were forced to work because their jobs,

983

:

they, they don't have the luxury of

being able to be at home and they are

984

:

forced into kind of close proximity to

this extraordinarily contagious virus.

985

:

And they're usually the same people

who have no health insurance or really

986

:

crappy health insurance and not a

lot of room to breathe economically.

987

:

But other people are having

more time because, you know,

988

:

they're no longer commuting,

they're not going to the office.

989

:

Maybe they're working less because

they have more flexibility.

990

:

Those people could have been activated

and mobilized into this desire.

991

:

But instead, what was the

message from the left?

992

:

The message from the left

was essential workers.

993

:

Everyone is essential, the message was.

994

:

If you are delivering groceries or

whatever, a teacher, your essential,

995

:

you can never take a vacation.

996

:

You can never take time off.

997

:

You are essential.

998

:

And what essential means is

that you don't get to stop.

999

:

That's the like bonus that you get

venerated, or, you know, as I put it at

:

00:53:30,369 --> 00:53:36,369

the time, you are looking at these folks

in low wage work in let's say Walmart.

:

00:53:36,399 --> 00:53:40,839

Like they're venerated at hero as

heroes, but actually they're hostages.

:

00:53:41,199 --> 00:53:41,529

Farrah Bostic: Right.

:

00:53:42,789 --> 00:53:49,059

Anat Shenker-Osorio: Instead of arguing,

actually the people who make this country

:

00:53:49,059 --> 00:53:52,329

run are the people who clock in every day.

:

00:53:52,719 --> 00:53:56,739

And those are the people that

we need to be protecting.

:

00:53:57,849 --> 00:54:01,599

And that means that

everyone needs a break.

:

00:54:01,779 --> 00:54:03,579

Everyone needs a paid break.

:

00:54:03,699 --> 00:54:08,169

And in other countries, as you know,

they paid people not to work because that

:

00:54:08,169 --> 00:54:09,939

is what was required for their health.

:

00:54:10,569 --> 00:54:16,699

And now fast forward, we're in a

moment where interestingly, people's

:

00:54:16,699 --> 00:54:21,589

perceptions of the role of government

are up for grabs in a way that they

:

00:54:21,589 --> 00:54:23,419

have not been for 20, 30 years.

:

00:54:23,449 --> 00:54:26,929

And the argument that we have been

trying to make government is good.

:

00:54:26,929 --> 00:54:29,899

Government is good, government is good,

government is good, we need government.

:

00:54:30,019 --> 00:54:35,629

Government should be here to help you

buttressing up against a right wing

:

00:54:35,629 --> 00:54:39,439

narrative project to tell people, you

know, the scariest words in the English

:

00:54:39,439 --> 00:54:42,589

language are, I'm from the government

and I'm here to help Reagan, you know,

:

00:54:42,589 --> 00:54:44,749

drown in a bathtub, Grover Norquist.

:

00:54:45,499 --> 00:54:48,949

And we've not been able to penetrate

with that message because again.

:

00:54:49,699 --> 00:54:54,409

Whatever you're saying, if it contradicts

what people feel to be true in their

:

00:54:54,409 --> 00:54:55,879

lives, like it's not gonna happen.

:

00:54:56,359 --> 00:54:59,659

And so now we have people

saying, I kid you not.

:

00:55:00,319 --> 00:55:02,749

I didn't know that Yosemite

was the government.

:

00:55:02,749 --> 00:55:05,419

I thought Yosemite was run

by the Yosemite company.

:

00:55:05,764 --> 00:55:06,154

Farrah Bostic: Right.

:

00:55:06,559 --> 00:55:09,589

Anat Shenker-Osorio: I tried to call

Social Security and did you know that

:

00:55:09,589 --> 00:55:13,039

social security is the government

and now they're not answering.

:

00:55:13,039 --> 00:55:15,289

So now we're in a persuasion window

:

00:55:15,339 --> 00:55:18,519

. Around what government

could and should be.

:

00:55:18,669 --> 00:55:24,399

We actually could have an affirmative

message that is about taking on

:

00:55:24,399 --> 00:55:29,049

this regime of the bullies for

the billionaires by the bribes

:

00:55:29,469 --> 00:55:36,043

. And demanding leaders who create a

government of the people by the people.

:

00:55:36,043 --> 00:55:39,493

For the people, as

Lincoln famously told us.

:

00:55:39,548 --> 00:55:45,038

. Instead, we are sort of like carefully

calibrating like which thing it

:

00:55:45,038 --> 00:55:47,078

is that we could possibly say.

:

00:55:47,588 --> 00:55:52,028

An underlying reason, as you

already know and you've surely

:

00:55:52,028 --> 00:55:56,618

discussed many times, is that the

problem is made out of the problem.

:

00:55:56,768 --> 00:56:03,458

Like a lot of these Democrats hashtag

not all Democrats, but a lot of them

:

00:56:04,058 --> 00:56:07,178

are beholden to the exact same forces.

:

00:56:07,808 --> 00:56:12,338

There's a reason why for the first

six weeks of the Harris campaign,

:

00:56:12,548 --> 00:56:14,978

she was talking about price controls.

:

00:56:15,158 --> 00:56:17,918

She was talking about

curbing childhood poverty.

:

00:56:18,098 --> 00:56:21,338

She was talking about

raising the minimum wage.

:

00:56:21,338 --> 00:56:25,748

She was talking about

concrete economic policies.

:

00:56:25,958 --> 00:56:31,058

And then once the billionaires reorganized

themselves, after sort of spooling out

:

00:56:31,298 --> 00:56:34,718

and being into different camps, the ones

who wanted Biden to go, didn't want Biden

:

00:56:34,718 --> 00:56:38,948

to go, wanted an open primary wanted

Harris, they suddenly were like, oh, okay.

:

00:56:38,948 --> 00:56:39,608

Well it's Harris.

:

00:56:39,608 --> 00:56:42,158

We better get ourselves back

together and be the adults in the

:

00:56:42,158 --> 00:56:47,228

room and tell them enough with this

weird and this freedom and this.

:

00:56:47,258 --> 00:56:49,778

If you want people to come to

your party, throw a better party.

:

00:56:49,958 --> 00:56:53,678

People are way too enthusiastic

and excited, and voter registration

:

00:56:53,678 --> 00:56:54,548

is going through the roof.

:

00:56:54,548 --> 00:56:58,808

God forbid we gotta get in there and

we gotta get Liz Cheney on the stump,

:

00:56:59,018 --> 00:57:05,658

and we've got to change our economic

message to opportunity economy pablum.

:

00:57:06,173 --> 00:57:06,503

Farrah Bostic: Yep.

:

00:57:08,123 --> 00:57:11,903

Anat Shenker-Osorio: That all of

these efforts that you referenced

:

00:57:11,903 --> 00:57:17,123

earlier, to try to sell Harris's

economic bonafides and to cast her as

:

00:57:17,243 --> 00:57:19,703

she's on the side of working people,

he's on the side of billionaires.

:

00:57:20,333 --> 00:57:27,743

It's very difficult to deliver that

message if it doesn't actually come

:

00:57:27,743 --> 00:57:32,483

in a package of here's what I'm gonna

do to these, to these billionaires.

:

00:57:32,493 --> 00:57:36,213

and, and even introducing an

increased capital gains tax and then

:

00:57:36,213 --> 00:57:40,353

walking it back, like, how were you

supposed to, why would voters believe

:

00:57:40,353 --> 00:57:40,623

you?

:

00:57:40,623 --> 00:57:41,043

Farrah Bostic: Mm-hmm.

:

00:57:42,018 --> 00:57:45,558

Well, this is, this actually gets to

the, the thing I kinda wanted to, to

:

00:57:46,458 --> 00:57:51,078

end on because I like to leave people

with a really uplifting conversation.

:

00:57:51,078 --> 00:57:56,091

And that is this tendency to the way that

I think about it is, is punching left

:

00:57:56,091 --> 00:58:00,591

and, you know, we have seen this now where

it's the enemy of my enemy is my enemy

:

00:58:00,621 --> 00:58:02,206

I, I live outside of New York City now.

:

00:58:02,206 --> 00:58:04,936

I've lived in, however, I lived in

New York City for 20 plus years.

:

00:58:04,966 --> 00:58:08,966

And so I am watching the mayoral

race and we have this completely

:

00:58:08,966 --> 00:58:10,676

bonkers mayoral race in New York City.

:

00:58:10,976 --> 00:58:16,466

But it has led to just like the weirdest

set of choices and you know, it, it seems

:

00:58:16,466 --> 00:58:20,486

like it was a similar dynamic in the

New Jersey race as well of like, let's

:

00:58:20,486 --> 00:58:23,156

just hue to something safe and centrist.

:

00:58:23,516 --> 00:58:25,306

Let's, let's play it safe.

:

00:58:25,966 --> 00:58:29,686

I'm not sure that I read a five way race

where only a third of the people voted

:

00:58:29,686 --> 00:58:33,316

for the candidate who won as like a

resounding endorsement of that centrism.

:

00:58:33,316 --> 00:58:37,756

But you know, that's the way electoral

politics shakes out in, in New York.

:

00:58:37,756 --> 00:58:42,657

Like we, we are having these conversations

of Mamdani is talking about things like.

:

00:58:43,222 --> 00:58:47,362

Why are we subsidizing expensive

markup grocery stores in New York

:

00:58:47,362 --> 00:58:51,142

City with public assistance for

people who need help buying groceries?

:

00:58:51,292 --> 00:58:54,592

Why don't we create non-profit,

city owned grocery stores that

:

00:58:54,592 --> 00:58:55,762

they can use their benefits in?

:

00:58:56,422 --> 00:59:01,792

And centrist people who love Liz Cheney,

who run various podcast networks,

:

00:59:01,972 --> 00:59:03,682

love to cast this as communism.

:

00:59:03,742 --> 00:59:07,672

This is, we're gonna seize the grocery

stores and make them state run.

:

00:59:07,672 --> 00:59:09,622

And of course that is

not what is happening.

:

00:59:09,622 --> 00:59:12,169

Citarella is, free to continue

to be Citarella and Gourmet

:

00:59:12,169 --> 00:59:13,699

Garage and all the others.

:

00:59:13,909 --> 00:59:18,089

But like , the, thing that's nice

about Mamdani and I have no skin

:

00:59:18,089 --> 00:59:20,399

in the game 'cause I can't vote in

New York City, but like at least he

:

00:59:20,399 --> 00:59:22,852

is not cowed by those criticisms.

:

00:59:22,852 --> 00:59:24,712

And instead just goes, you guys are crazy.

:

00:59:24,712 --> 00:59:26,512

That's not what I'm talking about

I'm talking about this thing

:

00:59:26,602 --> 00:59:30,622

and, and continues to just push

with this is what I want to do.

:

00:59:30,772 --> 00:59:31,882

I don't know how it's gonna work out.

:

00:59:31,912 --> 00:59:32,512

Again, it's.

:

00:59:33,067 --> 00:59:33,937

Fucking bonkers.

:

00:59:33,937 --> 00:59:38,777

But but that tendency to look at someone

to the left and go, oh, that's the danger.

:

00:59:39,064 --> 00:59:41,554

Come back over here to

like:

:

00:59:41,554 --> 00:59:45,724

politics and stay there because that's

the safe place for Democrats to operate

:

00:59:46,414 --> 00:59:46,894

is

:

00:59:47,734 --> 00:59:51,019

extremely frustrating for someone who grew

up in a marketing universe where I worked

:

00:59:51,019 --> 00:59:54,904

on a lot of brands that were underdogs and

our motto was always go big, or don't go

:

00:59:55,214 --> 00:59:56,564

you don't have a lot of money to spend.

:

00:59:56,564 --> 00:59:57,944

You don't have a lot of popular support.

:

00:59:57,944 --> 00:59:59,174

You are not the market leader.

:

00:59:59,474 --> 01:00:02,144

Then you only do the things

that are going to break through.

:

01:00:02,144 --> 01:00:04,154

You only do the things that

are going to get attention.

:

01:00:04,154 --> 01:00:07,064

You only do the things that imagine

a different way of doing things.

:

01:00:07,304 --> 01:00:08,744

Otherwise, what the hell are you doing?

:

01:00:08,834 --> 01:00:09,824

You're wasting your money.

:

01:00:10,169 --> 01:00:10,469

Anat Shenker-Osorio: Yeah.

:

01:00:10,934 --> 01:00:13,244

Farrah Bostic: I guess maybe some of

what you've already just described

:

01:00:13,244 --> 01:00:16,754

is how we got to here, but is

there, is it the, is it simply the,

:

01:00:16,814 --> 01:00:19,534

the the money that is making us

:

01:00:19,534 --> 01:00:22,204

huge to this bizarre view from nowhere?

:

01:00:22,534 --> 01:00:27,964

Centrist defensive preservationist

of old systems that are frankly,

:

01:00:27,964 --> 01:00:32,564

already broken, approach to winning

elections on very little evidence

:

01:00:32,564 --> 01:00:34,064

that they win a lot of elections.

:

01:00:35,379 --> 01:00:40,059

Anat Shenker-Osorio: Yeah, it's the

money, it's basically financial interests.

:

01:00:40,389 --> 01:00:44,829

It's, the Supreme Court decision, the

Roberts Court decision that I call

:

01:00:44,829 --> 01:00:49,599

corporations unleash, that we stupidly

just parroted the name Citizens United,

:

01:00:49,869 --> 01:00:55,959

not realizing, I guess, that being against

Citizens United sounds like a bizarre

:

01:00:55,959 --> 01:00:58,959

thing to be against when you actually

think about the meaning of those words.

:

01:00:59,019 --> 01:01:02,889

And we just, credulously always, but

that's the name of the thing or not.

:

01:01:02,889 --> 01:01:04,119

I'm like, no, it fucking isn't.

:

01:01:04,149 --> 01:01:05,739

The name of the thing is

whatever's coming outta your

:

01:01:05,739 --> 01:01:07,179

mouth, it's corporations unleashed.

:

01:01:07,209 --> 01:01:08,409

Anyway, I digress.

:

01:01:09,854 --> 01:01:11,924

Farrah Bostic: Quick plug for

MAGA murder Bill by the way,

:

01:01:11,924 --> 01:01:12,134

Mar

:

01:01:12,219 --> 01:01:13,149

Anat Shenker-Osorio: thank you.

:

01:01:13,749 --> 01:01:14,289

Thank you.

:

01:01:14,354 --> 01:01:14,684

Farrah Bostic: plug for

:

01:01:14,684 --> 01:01:14,954

that.

:

01:01:15,104 --> 01:01:15,464

Yes.

:

01:01:15,609 --> 01:01:18,759

Anat Shenker-Osorio: Maga

order Bill, or if you need to

:

01:01:19,089 --> 01:01:21,999

the massive murderous measure.

:

01:01:22,272 --> 01:01:24,072

So sorry.

:

01:01:24,072 --> 01:01:25,302

I will answer your question.

:

01:01:25,992 --> 01:01:31,092

Yeah, it's the money, it's the

incentives, but the thing about it that

:

01:01:31,092 --> 01:01:38,232

is infuriating, besides that it destroys

the country and people's lives and

:

01:01:38,232 --> 01:01:42,192

livelihoods, that's also infuriating.

:

01:01:43,122 --> 01:01:51,612

It's that it is always dressed up

in this very, very erudite numbers.

:

01:01:51,612 --> 01:01:53,052

With decibel points.

:

01:01:53,322 --> 01:01:57,072

I got a perfect score

on my math SATs, a knot.

:

01:01:58,782 --> 01:02:03,402

We've done all of the things and we

have, calculated the so-called wins

:

01:02:03,402 --> 01:02:08,812

above replacement and moderation,

moderate, candidates win overall.

:

01:02:08,812 --> 01:02:10,642

And this is what we need to do

:

01:02:10,912 --> 01:02:13,562

in order to, get ahead

and purple districts.

:

01:02:13,562 --> 01:02:16,382

And don't you want Democrats to

have a majority and on balance?

:

01:02:16,382 --> 01:02:19,412

Don't you think that like it is better

when we elect more Democrats and your

:

01:02:19,412 --> 01:02:20,972

ideas are like wild and out here.

:

01:02:22,262 --> 01:02:23,432

So that happens.

:

01:02:23,462 --> 01:02:27,152

And partly that is because, yeah,

obviously there are districts

:

01:02:27,152 --> 01:02:30,782

in which that's true and.

:

01:02:31,367 --> 01:02:34,157

People refuse to measure mobilization.

:

01:02:34,157 --> 01:02:39,087

And so everything is a calculus

around, vote switching and not

:

01:02:39,087 --> 01:02:44,877

a calculus around how much did a

compelling, exciting, enthusiastic

:

01:02:44,877 --> 01:02:47,577

person bring into the electorate?

:

01:02:47,577 --> 01:02:50,667

Like that doesn't even get counted

because it's harder to measure

:

01:02:50,667 --> 01:02:53,797

because it would require knowing a

counterfactual that you can't know,

:

01:02:53,797 --> 01:02:58,747

which is how many people would've come

had there just been two boring people.

:

01:02:58,747 --> 01:03:00,277

And you can't measure that.

:

01:03:00,277 --> 01:03:01,417

'cause that isn't what happened.

:

01:03:01,777 --> 01:03:04,297

And so that just gets discounted entirely.

:

01:03:04,627 --> 01:03:07,747

And that's the way that

the math gets reported.

:

01:03:08,647 --> 01:03:12,967

And the other piece of it,

which is infuriating, is that.

:

01:03:13,447 --> 01:03:14,887

these same people.

:

01:03:15,247 --> 01:03:23,107

Who are obsessed with how leftist

groups are poisoning the discourse

:

01:03:23,107 --> 01:03:27,427

by saying wild things like

defund the police or abolish ice.

:

01:03:27,787 --> 01:03:32,857

And you know, this is so widespread that

it is tainting people's views of Democrats

:

01:03:33,217 --> 01:03:36,997

and that, you know, that is what makes

people think that Democrats are too woke

:

01:03:36,997 --> 01:03:38,767

because the groups have too much power.

:

01:03:38,887 --> 01:03:43,447

So they have this theory that

messaging does spread and it does

:

01:03:43,447 --> 01:03:45,997

sort of create this overall patina.

:

01:03:46,417 --> 01:03:54,037

But at the same time, when I say to

them, do you understand that when a Bill

:

01:03:54,037 --> 01:04:00,097

Clinton says the era of big government

is over and I'm going to end welfare as

:

01:04:00,097 --> 01:04:03,037

we know it, he is creating a discourse.

:

01:04:03,037 --> 01:04:11,437

He is adding to a discourse that

privileges Republicans and he may.

:

01:04:12,067 --> 01:04:14,257

Eek out a second term win.

:

01:04:14,707 --> 01:04:19,567

And also preside, not coincidentally,

over the largest midterm

:

01:04:19,567 --> 01:04:21,397

shellacking, an incumbent party.

:

01:04:21,667 --> 01:04:25,957

And to be sure incumbent parties generally

take a shellacking in the midterms.

:

01:04:26,827 --> 01:04:32,464

Like that's true, but the largest midterm

shellacking that had happened to date.

:

01:04:33,514 --> 01:04:39,484

And all of these Democrats, the Elise

Slotkin and the, you know, what's

:

01:04:39,484 --> 01:04:42,054

his face in Long Island Suozzi.

:

01:04:42,074 --> 01:04:46,284

And, Henry Cuellar, the big tent.

:

01:04:46,889 --> 01:04:47,309

Farrah Bostic: Mm-hmm.

:

01:04:47,754 --> 01:04:48,264

Anat Shenker-Osorio: The big tent.

:

01:04:48,264 --> 01:04:50,964

That of course doesn't include immigrants

and the big tent that doesn't include

:

01:04:50,964 --> 01:04:55,174

queer people and the big tent that

doesn't include victims of state

:

01:04:55,174 --> 01:04:57,814

violence, which is usually black people.

:

01:04:58,744 --> 01:05:00,904

It's a big tent, but.

:

01:05:01,924 --> 01:05:04,564

The thing about a big tent

is that in order for it to

:

01:05:04,564 --> 01:05:05,884

stand, it has to have a pole.

:

01:05:05,884 --> 01:05:09,034

Otherwise it's a tarp and

it just will suffocate you.

:

01:05:09,574 --> 01:05:15,574

So the fact that all of this just

keeps moving, all of the discourse to

:

01:05:15,574 --> 01:05:21,604

the right, thereby making it harder

for future Democrats to run and

:

01:05:21,604 --> 01:05:24,844

win because you are adding to this.

:

01:05:24,934 --> 01:05:26,134

The problem is the border.

:

01:05:26,134 --> 01:05:27,484

The problem is trans kids.

:

01:05:27,484 --> 01:05:34,324

The problem is this, and there's no

recognition that that's the case,

:

01:05:34,354 --> 01:05:38,913

and you are actually changing the

weather against your own thing.

:

01:05:39,574 --> 01:05:39,934

Farrah Bostic: Right.

:

01:05:41,204 --> 01:05:45,314

Anat Shenker-Osorio: And done with

this veneer of like gi not, we wish

:

01:05:45,314 --> 01:05:46,604

we could stand up for immigrants.

:

01:05:46,604 --> 01:05:48,014

We really do.

:

01:05:48,314 --> 01:05:51,464

Gi not, we wish we could

champion abortion access.

:

01:05:51,644 --> 01:05:57,704

We really do gi not, we wish that we could

argue that police should not be out in

:

01:05:57,704 --> 01:06:01,454

the world just indiscriminately killing

people because they happen to be black.

:

01:06:02,024 --> 01:06:07,694

But that would cost us the election

and then we wouldn't be able to govern

:

01:06:07,754 --> 01:06:11,144

in a way that, by the way, doesn't

help any of those people anyway.

:

01:06:11,474 --> 01:06:12,074

Farrah Bostic: Right.

:

01:06:12,254 --> 01:06:15,224

Right, you know, one of the things

I, I find when I look at some of,

:

01:06:15,224 --> 01:06:19,094

like the, the big post-election,

we crunched all the numbers.

:

01:06:19,094 --> 01:06:22,874

And here's what happened,

Dex is that they're great.

:

01:06:22,934 --> 01:06:25,064

There's a lot of really

interesting detail in them.

:

01:06:25,274 --> 01:06:28,634

But if I were like the CMO of the

Democratic party and I had to make

:

01:06:28,634 --> 01:06:32,114

a decision about how I was gonna

spend my money and on what I don't

:

01:06:32,174 --> 01:06:35,413

know, reading those decks, what I'm

supposed to do there, what I can

:

01:06:35,413 --> 01:06:39,074

tell is like the emerging democratic

majority demographic, our destiny

:

01:06:39,404 --> 01:06:42,974

prediction turned out to be wrong, which

frankly should come as no surprise.

:

01:06:42,974 --> 01:06:44,594

It turned out to be wrong

when the Republicans wrote

:

01:06:44,594 --> 01:06:46,484

the same book in the:

:

01:06:46,514 --> 01:06:51,314

And like, so, so the question to

me is like, so what do we do next?

:

01:06:51,314 --> 01:06:55,514

And I cannot, for the life of me

really figure out what the project

:

01:06:55,514 --> 01:06:58,184

is that the democratic.

:

01:06:58,724 --> 01:07:06,854

Establishment type of candidates are, And

and organizations are basically constantly

:

01:07:06,854 --> 01:07:10,574

studying democratic voters when

republicans don't seem to constantly

:

01:07:10,574 --> 01:07:13,544

study Republican voters in quite like

the number of polls of like what's

:

01:07:13,544 --> 01:07:16,424

going on with the Republicans who

didn't vote Republican or whatever.

:

01:07:16,424 --> 01:07:17,834

This year I don't see any of those polls.

:

01:07:17,894 --> 01:07:23,854

And also where there is a kind

of assumption that it is only

:

01:07:23,854 --> 01:07:28,084

Democrats who are out of touch with

real Americans and have to figure

:

01:07:28,084 --> 01:07:29,913

out what real America is like.

:

01:07:29,913 --> 01:07:30,034

But

:

01:07:30,034 --> 01:07:35,584

there's never any belief that the

crazy ass ideas that come from the

:

01:07:35,584 --> 01:07:39,684

right are also equally, to your point

about people not realizing until they

:

01:07:39,684 --> 01:07:43,764

wake up one day and discover that

you can't take your government hands

:

01:07:43,764 --> 01:07:45,264

off my Medicare because it is the

:

01:07:45,264 --> 01:07:48,864

government and that actually I need the

government in order to get my Medicare.

:

01:07:49,444 --> 01:07:50,044

There have been.

:

01:07:50,479 --> 01:07:51,529

CNN had some work.

:

01:07:51,529 --> 01:07:54,829

I talked to Ariel Edwards Levy the

other day about some work they had

:

01:07:54,829 --> 01:07:56,269

shown, which is like people generally

:

01:07:56,269 --> 01:07:57,799

thinking government should do more.

:

01:07:58,279 --> 01:08:02,209

And also not thinking either party

was going to do with government what

:

01:08:02,209 --> 01:08:03,739

they would like government to do.

:

01:08:04,229 --> 01:08:08,939

There is just this bizarre hand

wringing, , asymmetry, which if you're

:

01:08:08,939 --> 01:08:11,519

a fascist party, you just crush forward.

:

01:08:11,839 --> 01:08:13,249

With pure power.

:

01:08:13,249 --> 01:08:14,509

That's the only objective.

:

01:08:14,509 --> 01:08:17,089

And so say, do whatever it

takes in order to get that.

:

01:08:17,929 --> 01:08:21,919

The other side is like playing a

persuasion game where they seem to just

:

01:08:21,919 --> 01:08:23,779

be trying to persuade each other and

:

01:08:23,779 --> 01:08:27,259

not any of those people who open the

door and said, yeah, all right, I'll take

:

01:08:27,259 --> 01:08:29,779

your flyer, but you guys only show up

every four years and then you don't do

:

01:08:29,779 --> 01:08:30,738

anything for me.

:

01:08:30,859 --> 01:08:36,349

And there is a disconnect as well between

the campaigning and the governing and you

:

01:08:36,349 --> 01:08:39,709

know, the old thing of, you know, campaign

and poetry and governing prose while

:

01:08:39,709 --> 01:08:41,599

you're doing, you're doing both of them

:

01:08:41,599 --> 01:08:43,578

in spreadsheets now is

actually what you're

:

01:08:43,578 --> 01:08:47,419

doing when I don't know, like,

is there any sign of life?

:

01:08:47,419 --> 01:08:50,149

Is there any possibility of

shaking some people loose and

:

01:08:50,149 --> 01:08:52,158

getting off of this ridiculous

:

01:08:52,309 --> 01:08:52,759

train

:

01:08:52,818 --> 01:08:53,599

that they're on?

:

01:08:54,709 --> 01:08:56,779

It's there a sign of life

here or not, is my question.

:

01:08:57,254 --> 01:08:57,913

Anat Shenker-Osorio: Yeah.

:

01:08:58,724 --> 01:08:59,384

Yeah.

:

01:09:00,044 --> 01:09:02,024

And here is what it is.

:

01:09:02,167 --> 01:09:09,877

, So, you know how we nash our

teeth and we have like utter

:

01:09:09,877 --> 01:09:11,767

very clear-eyed consternation.

:

01:09:11,767 --> 01:09:18,281

Anytime Democrats say like, oh, I'm

gonna work with my Republican colleagues

:

01:09:18,281 --> 01:09:19,571

and I'm gonna work across the aisle.

:

01:09:19,571 --> 01:09:23,741

And like Susan Collins will finally

like, go from being concerned to

:

01:09:23,741 --> 01:09:25,270

like actually doing something.

:

01:09:25,491 --> 01:09:31,161

Joe Biden loved to like always

tout how, how, how we laugh at

:

01:09:31,161 --> 01:09:34,071

them or we yell at them because

they're like, there's no reasonable

:

01:09:34,071 --> 01:09:35,270

Republicans that are gonna show up.

:

01:09:35,270 --> 01:09:37,011

Like, stop freaking trying.

:

01:09:37,011 --> 01:09:38,091

Like, that's not a thing.

:

01:09:38,091 --> 01:09:39,171

It's not gonna happen.

:

01:09:39,321 --> 01:09:40,640

Why are you thinking it's gonna happen?

:

01:09:41,031 --> 01:09:43,761

But then we ourselves are guilty.

:

01:09:44,435 --> 01:09:49,716

Of exactly the same thing with Democrats,

and we keep asking and asking and asking

:

01:09:49,716 --> 01:09:51,276

like, well, what would change them?

:

01:09:51,276 --> 01:09:52,836

What would make them behave differently?

:

01:09:52,836 --> 01:09:53,946

What would make them this?

:

01:09:54,306 --> 01:09:58,929

Why would we think they would,

other than the ones who do

:

01:09:59,229 --> 01:10:02,739

because hashtag Not all Democrats.

:

01:10:02,844 --> 01:10:03,174

Farrah Bostic: Yeah.

:

01:10:03,729 --> 01:10:07,389

Anat Shenker-Osorio: So one answer is

that we actually have to go through

:

01:10:07,389 --> 01:10:10,568

the arduous, painstaking primary

process of electing better Democrats.

:

01:10:10,568 --> 01:10:11,709

Like that is one thing.

:

01:10:11,769 --> 01:10:16,659

There have to be different people with

different incentives, but honestly,

:

01:10:17,318 --> 01:10:25,749

where I'm at myself personally, I

am not, focused on trying to alter

:

01:10:25,809 --> 01:10:31,929

how Democrats behave because here is

what alters what Democrats behave.

:

01:10:32,409 --> 01:10:33,579

We're watching it happen.

:

01:10:33,639 --> 01:10:37,749

I live in California,

Gavin Newsom, the same.

:

01:10:38,019 --> 01:10:42,639

Gavin Newsom who rose to prominence.

:

01:10:43,254 --> 01:10:44,424

Being Mr.

:

01:10:44,514 --> 01:10:47,574

I'm gonna marry gay and lesbian

people when it's not legal yet.

:

01:10:47,994 --> 01:10:50,784

I'm gonna make myself the

cool kid by doing city hall

:

01:10:50,784 --> 01:10:53,254

marriages, counterculture, right?

:

01:10:53,374 --> 01:10:54,424

When it wasn't allowed.

:

01:10:54,454 --> 01:10:55,894

And suddenly people are like, Ooh.

:

01:10:56,014 --> 01:10:57,604

And obviously a lot of people objected.

:

01:10:58,114 --> 01:11:00,994

But that's the whole thing

about an effective message.

:

01:11:01,084 --> 01:11:06,484

If, if you want to have people to come

to your cause, you have to be attractive.

:

01:11:07,144 --> 01:11:11,224

Which means attract them to you and

have a polarity, like any magnet,

:

01:11:11,374 --> 01:11:13,174

that's also going to repel people.

:

01:11:13,384 --> 01:11:15,754

Because if you wanna touch a

nerve, you have to touch a nerve.

:

01:11:15,814 --> 01:11:18,994

That's the basic, which is essentially

what you were saying about smaller

:

01:11:18,994 --> 01:11:20,704

companies trying to break into markets.

:

01:11:21,124 --> 01:11:22,443

So he does that.

:

01:11:22,443 --> 01:11:27,654

Then fast forward to, after the election,

he becomes like, dude, bro, podcaster,

:

01:11:27,654 --> 01:11:31,224

v platforming, some of the most odious

human beings, because he's like,

:

01:11:31,344 --> 01:11:32,994

this is where the cool kids are now.

:

01:11:33,024 --> 01:11:33,384

Right?

:

01:11:33,443 --> 01:11:35,814

Like it used to be that the

cool kids were the gay kids.

:

01:11:35,934 --> 01:11:37,284

Now screw them.

:

01:11:37,284 --> 01:11:40,254

I'm gonna like throw them

under every conceivable bus

:

01:11:40,254 --> 01:11:42,024

or like podcast microphone.

:

01:11:42,174 --> 01:11:44,867

I'm gonna go hang out with the right,

because that's where the cool kids

:

01:11:44,867 --> 01:11:47,957

are to now the last couple of days.

:

01:11:48,107 --> 01:11:52,577

Where he seems to have located for

himself, perhaps not an entire backbone,

:

01:11:52,577 --> 01:11:57,407

let's not get too hasty, but like maybe

a vertebra or maybe two, maybe three.

:

01:11:57,947 --> 01:12:02,567

And he is now rightly mocking Trump

and saying, you know, come arrest me.

:

01:12:02,567 --> 01:12:06,587

Like come for me and made an address

that was actually quite good.

:

01:12:06,587 --> 01:12:08,107

And if I'm saying it,

:

01:12:08,397 --> 01:12:08,687

Farrah Bostic: Yeah.

:

01:12:09,157 --> 01:12:10,387

Anat Shenker-Osorio: I

don't relish saying it.

:

01:12:10,387 --> 01:12:12,367

So like I really think it's true.

:

01:12:12,817 --> 01:12:16,567

Did he do that because he suddenly

located within himself some sort

:

01:12:16,567 --> 01:12:17,857

of conscious, no, of course not.

:

01:12:18,067 --> 01:12:25,537

He did that because of the

leadership of the city of angels.

:

01:12:25,567 --> 01:12:32,527

The angels that reside among us,

the angels, the Es, who went to

:

01:12:32,527 --> 01:12:40,057

the front lines and are getting

pounded by a military force that

:

01:12:40,057 --> 01:12:42,367

Trump has unleashed against them.

:

01:12:43,357 --> 01:12:44,767

To say no.

:

01:12:44,827 --> 01:12:47,347

We are standing up to this fascist regime.

:

01:12:47,437 --> 01:12:51,307

We will fight for our freedoms

and we are gonna fight for the

:

01:12:51,307 --> 01:12:53,827

freedoms of everyone in this place.

:

01:12:53,857 --> 01:12:56,287

It doesn't matter to us what

they look like, where they come

:

01:12:56,287 --> 01:12:57,307

from, what their background.

:

01:12:57,547 --> 01:12:58,537

That's what we're gonna do.

:

01:12:58,657 --> 01:13:00,517

So now that's the cool kids' table.

:

01:13:02,512 --> 01:13:08,317

So the way that Democrats are

gonna come around is when the

:

01:13:08,317 --> 01:13:15,307

movement, when ordinary, everyday

people are out in the world.

:

01:13:15,637 --> 01:13:17,437

They're not gonna go first.

:

01:13:17,837 --> 01:13:18,077

Farrah Bostic: Right.

:

01:13:18,367 --> 01:13:19,627

Anat Shenker-Osorio:

They're not gonna go first.

:

01:13:19,657 --> 01:13:20,947

They are not leaders.

:

01:13:20,947 --> 01:13:24,457

Leaders go first, except

for the few that do.

:

01:13:25,147 --> 01:13:26,167

Some of them do.

:

01:13:26,887 --> 01:13:30,517

But the way to change Democrats

is by changing ourselves.

:

01:13:30,952 --> 01:13:32,982

. Farrah Bostic: I think that's a

really, , good bullet for us to end on.

:

01:13:33,912 --> 01:13:37,899

So, , what is the best way for

people to follow your work?

:

01:13:38,374 --> 01:13:39,899

Anat Shenker-Osorio: So I have a substack.

:

01:13:39,929 --> 01:13:44,219

I don't use it that much, but I try,

uh, it's called Words to Win by.

:

01:13:44,609 --> 01:13:47,009

It is the same as my podcast.

:

01:13:47,009 --> 01:13:49,679

Words to Win by where every

episode is a campaign.

:

01:13:49,679 --> 01:13:51,179

We won somewhere in the world.

:

01:13:51,659 --> 01:13:55,619

We make all of our messaging

guidance available.

:

01:13:55,649 --> 01:13:57,179

Free open source.

:

01:13:57,179 --> 01:14:01,049

If you go to my website,

aso communications.com,

:

01:14:01,259 --> 01:14:02,849

we have messaging guides in English.

:

01:14:02,849 --> 01:14:04,469

We have lots of them in Spanish.

:

01:14:04,719 --> 01:14:05,949

, We have ads.

:

01:14:06,129 --> 01:14:07,869

You can go on there.

:

01:14:08,124 --> 01:14:09,774

You know, how do I talk about immigrants?

:

01:14:09,774 --> 01:14:11,544

How do I talk about raising wages?

:

01:14:11,544 --> 01:14:14,164

How do I talk about, trans kids?

:

01:14:14,464 --> 01:14:17,943

If we've done a project on it, we've

made it open source, it's sitting there.

:

01:14:18,324 --> 01:14:19,464

, I'm on blue sky.

:

01:14:19,704 --> 01:14:25,097

I mostly try to, post in the messaging

that I think you should be using.

:

01:14:25,277 --> 01:14:30,077

But occasionally it is do as I say, not

as I do, because I just get so pissed

:

01:14:30,077 --> 01:14:32,867

off that sometimes I just, I just go off.

:

01:14:32,867 --> 01:14:35,327

I'm like, okay, this is not the

messaging you should be using, but I'm

:

01:14:35,327 --> 01:14:36,917

so fucking pissed about this thing.

:

01:14:37,106 --> 01:14:38,786

Farrah Bostic: Thank you so much

for spending the time with me.

:

01:14:38,786 --> 01:14:40,946

I know we went, over time and I

would love to keep you for like

:

01:14:40,946 --> 01:14:44,493

four, five more years, but instead,

I think we'll wrap right here.

:

01:14:44,733 --> 01:14:46,323

Thank you so much, Anat for joining me.

:

01:14:46,758 --> 01:14:47,358

Anat Shenker-Osorio: Thank you.

:

01:14:47,358 --> 01:14:49,428

It was lovely, lovely chatting with you.

:

01:14:51,266 --> 01:14:53,756

. Farrah Bostic: Crosstabs is a

production of the Difference Engine.

:

01:14:53,846 --> 01:14:55,376

It is edited and hosted by me.

:

01:14:55,436 --> 01:14:59,036

Farrah Bostick music is from

Audio Jungle by S Audio.

:

01:14:59,366 --> 01:15:03,926

You can subscribe to our weekly

newsletter for free@crosstabspodcast.com.

:

01:15:04,616 --> 01:15:08,186

You can also follow the show

on Blue sky@crosstabspod.blue

:

01:15:08,186 --> 01:15:09,086

sky.social,

:

01:15:09,146 --> 01:15:12,716

and on LinkedIn where we share links

to new episodes and newsletters.

:

01:15:13,196 --> 01:15:16,556

We also share these episodes via

video, and you can like and subscribe

:

01:15:16,556 --> 01:15:19,976

to each week's video episode on

YouTube at Crosstabs podcast.

:

01:15:20,125 --> 01:15:22,075

Please follow us on

your favorite platform.

:

01:15:22,075 --> 01:15:25,465

Tell your friends about the show, and

don't forget to subscribe on whatever your

:

01:15:25,465 --> 01:15:27,295

favorite podcast service happens to be.

:

01:15:27,745 --> 01:15:30,715

If you wanna learn more about what

I do, you can find me on all the

:

01:15:30,715 --> 01:15:34,105

socials at Fara Bostic, though I

am mostly on Blue Sky these days.

:

01:15:34,165 --> 01:15:36,715

Or get in touch through

the difference engine.co.

:

01:15:37,195 --> 01:15:37,855

And that's it.

:

01:15:37,945 --> 01:15:38,695

See you next time.

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About the Podcast

Cross Tabs
People • Data • Power
Our world is governed by numbers — surveys, polling, algorithms, and data.

On Cross Tabs, we bring you the stories behind these numbers. This podcast is your introduction to the people, perspectives, and agendas that shape our reality, and call it “public opinion”.

We invite experts to discuss pressing issues and walk us through their methods. You’ll hear about the issues that matter from some of the brightest thinkers in policy and politics, tech and business.

Join us and you’ll learn about how polling works — or doesn’t work — and how research can be manipulated to advance a political agenda. Discover the history of topics in the news and hear insights on culture and society.

And learn what’s really at risk in the race to influence and optimize, well, everything.

The show is hosted by Farrah Bostic, founder of The Difference Engine, where she works as a qualitative researcher and strategist working outside The Beltway to understand what drives business leaders, experts, and people like you so we can all make better decisions.